ï»?!DOCTYPE html> 江西省信息中心(江西省大数据中心ï¼?经济预测 2018年江西宏观经济景气分析及2019年展æœ?/title> <meta name='Maketime' content='2021-04-25 10:24:33'> <meta name="SiteName" content="江西省信息中心(江西省大数据中心ï¼?> <meta name="SiteDomain" content="www.347755.com"> <meta name="SiteIDCode" content=""> <meta name="ColumnName" content="经济预测"> <meta name="ColumnType" content="经济预测"> <meta name="ArticleTitle" content="2018年江西宏观经济景气分析及2019年展æœ?> <meta name="pubdate" content="2019-04-12 19:26"/> <meta name="pageSize" content="1"/> <meta name="Author" content="预测éƒ?> <meta name="Description" content=""> <meta name="Keywords" content=""> <meta name="ContentSource" content="预测éƒ?> <meta name="Url" content="http://www.347755.com/art/2019/4/12/art_57491_3334379.html"> <meta name="language" content="中文"> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/images/9753/common.v2020.css" id="style1" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/images/9753/xl.v2020.css" id="style2" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/images/9753/jquery.qtip.min.css" id="style3" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" id="style4" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" id="style5" media="all" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/mobile-detect.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery-1.8.2.min.js"></script> <script type='text/javascript' src='http://www.347755.com/module/jslib/grouppic/jquery.ad-gallery.js'></script> <link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='http://www.347755.com/module/jslib/grouppic/jquery.ad-gallery2.css'> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> </head> <body id="_____xl"> <div style="position:fixed;left:-9000px;top:-9000px;"></div> <script src="/script/961/2104201453189959.js"></script> <section> <div class="W C"> <div class="path"><i class="fas fa-home"></i> <table cellspacing="0"cellpadding="0"border="0"><tr><td><a href="http://www.347755.com/index.html"class="bt_link">首页</a></td><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"> <tr> <td>><a href="http://www.347755.com/col/col57475/index.html"class="bt_link">宏观经济</a></td><td>><a href="http://www.347755.com/col/col57491/index.html"class="bt_link">经济预测</a></td> </tr></table></td></tr></table> <div class="clr"></div> </div> </div> </section> <section> <div class="W C"> <div class="xl-auto"> <script language="javascript">function doZoom(size){document.getElementById('zoom').style.fontSize=size+'px'}</script> <div class="tab-slider _____xl"> <div class="tab-hd"> <h1 class="text-center orig-title"><!--<$[标题名称(html)]>begin-->2018年江西宏观经济景气分析及2019年展æœ?!--<$[标题名称(html)]>end--></h1> <div class="cl"></div> <div class="text-center xl-line-info"> <span>日期ï¼?019-04-12</span><span>来源ï¼?!--<$[信息来源]>begin-->预测éƒ?!--<$[信息来源]>end--></span> <span class="set-font-size">字号ã€?a href='javascript:doZoom(16)'>å¤?/a><a href='javascript:doZoom(14)'>ä¸?/a><a href='javascript:doZoom(12)'>å°?/a>ã€?/span> </div> </div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="tab-bd"> <div class="tab-pal article-box" style="display: block;"> <div class="____article_content"> <!--<$[信息内容]>begin--><!--ZJEG_RSS.content.begin--><meta name="ContentStart"/><div class=TRS_Editor><DIV class=cas_content style="LAYOUT-GRID: 15.6pt none"> <P>  <STRONG>内容摘要ï¼?/STRONG>江西监测预警信号系统显示,目前我省宏观经济下行压力较大,综合警情指数处于偏冷区间;江西宏观经济景气分析系统显示宏观先行、一致指数双双持续下行,预示2019年我省宏观经济下行压力继续加大。建议强化逆周期调节,积极的财政政策加力提效;优化结构,加大供给侧结构性改革的力度;落实金融服务政策,定向支持中小微民营企业ã€?/P></DIV> <P class=cas_content align=left>  <STRONG>一、监测预警信号系统显示当前我省经济下行压力较å¤?/STRONG></P> <P class=cas_content>  宏观经济监测预警信号系统显示,当前宏观经济下行压力较大,构成综合警情指数çš?0个预警指标走势分化,综合警情指数运行于偏冷区间ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  (一)监测预警信号系统基本情å†?/P> <P class=cas_content>  江西宏观经济景气预警分析系统选取10个重要的宏观经济指标,反映经济运行的总供给、总需求、财政、金融、物价等不同侧面,用红、黄、绿、浅蓝和深蓝灯的标志对重要的宏观经济指标进行监测和预警,以综合反映宏观经济运行的总体状况。红灯表示经济过热、黄灯表示趋热、绿灯表示正常、浅蓝灯表示趋冷、深蓝色灯表示过冷。预警指数的指标构成见表1ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观经济预警指数构成</P> <DIV class=cas_content align=center> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="BORDER-TOP: black 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 44.1pt; BORDER-LEFT: black 1px solid; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=583 border=1> <TBODY> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">指标名称</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">指标名称</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">1</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">居民消费价格指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">6</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">工业生产者出厂价格指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">2</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">财政收入指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">7</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">固定资产投资指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">3</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">房地产开发投资指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">8</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">社会消费品零售总额指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">4</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">金融机构各项贷款指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">9</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">工业增加值指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">5</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">进出口额指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">10</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">主营业务收入指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV> <P class=cas_content align=left>  (二)景气信号灯显示经济指标运行分化</P> <P class=cas_content>  从构成预警指数的10个指标的景气信号情况来看ï¼?018年多数指标运行于正常及过冷区间(见图1)。其中,金融机构各项贷款指标和工业生产者出厂价格指数整年运行于“正常”区间,符合预期;进出口额指标连ç»?2个月处于“正常”区间,尚未受中美贸易摩擦的负面影响;主营业务收入指标长期在“偏冷”和“正常”间轮动切换,在年末定性至“正常”;居民消费价格指标å‰?1个月持续处于“正常”,年末转为“偏冷”,物价温和上涨,涨幅稳中略降;房地产开发投资指标从2018å¹?月起由“过冷”区间回升“趋冷”区间;财政收入指标ä»?018å¹?月起由“趋冷”区间落入“过冷”区间,财政收入增速逐月回落,这是由于增值税改革、规范行政事业性收费和政府性基金收入等减费降税措施逐步实施,积极财政政策显效所致;工业企业增加值指标在2018å¹?月从“浅蓝灯区”转变为“深蓝灯区”, 形势由“趋冷”转向“过冷”,继续下探。受防范和化解地方政府隐形债务、金融机构支持力度明显收缩等因素影响,基础设施投资增速大幅放缓,固定资产投资指数ç”?017å¹?2月的111.76逐月回落è‡?018å¹?2月的110.34,在最è¿?2个月内始终运行于“过冷”区间,增速偏离正常水平。社会消费品零售总额指标ä»?018å¹?月起由“趋冷”区间落入“过冷”区间,居民消费前高后低,整体温和增长;消费增速下滑固然与经济和居民收入增速下行有关,但居民过高的债务杠杆也是制约消费的重要原因ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  </P> <P class=cas_content align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=555 height=399 _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" v:shapes="图片_x0020_5" /></P> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content>  注:①红色表示过热;黄色表示趋热;绿色表示稳定;浅蓝表示趋冷;蓝色表示过冷;②表中指标均为对应的发展速度序列,且经过季节调整处理。(下同ï¼?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  å›?江西月度经济指标景气信号ç?/P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  (三)综合警情指数显示当前我省经济下行压力较å¤?/P> <P class=cas_content>  从图1总体来看,构成综合警情指数的10个指标中æœ?个经历了明显的下行过程,只有一个指标呈现上行过程,这使得综合警情指数总体呈现下行趋势,自ä»?018年整年持续运行于“趋冷”区间,未见上行趋势ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content>  从较长时间来看(见图2),综合警情指数åœ?014å¹?1月从“正常”区间落入“趋冷”区间,一路下探至2015å¹?0月的“过冷”区间,此后开始反弹恢复上行态势ï¼?017å¹?月短暂回升至“正常”区间后转为下行回调至“趋冷”区间ã€?018年仍呈现下行趋势,显示我省宏观经济总体偏冷,下行压力较大ã€?018å¹?2月,综合警情指数成为全年的最低点,相æ¯?017å¹?2月的22点下é™?点ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  <SPAN></P> <P class=cas_content align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=261 _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" v:shapes="图片_x0020_1" /></P></SPAN> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  å›? 江西月度综合警情指数走势å›?/P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  <STRONG>二、景气指数系统预ç¤?019年经济运行下行压力加å¤?/STRONG></P> <P class=cas_content>  (一)宏观经济景气指数系统基本情å†?/P> <P class=cas_content>  江西宏观经济景气指数系统基于经济周期理论,以工业增加值为基准指标,利用时间序列方法识别不同经济指标与基准指标的时差关系,并将指标分成先行、一致和滞后三类,进而合成景气指数,构建景气系统。我们综合使用时差相关分析、K-L信息量、基于DTW的聚类分析等新方法对景气指数系统的相关指标库进行了改进,目前指标构成情况见表2ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观经济景气系统指标åº?/P> <DIV class=cas_content align=center> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="BORDER-TOP: black 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1px solid; WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: black 1px solid; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=1> <TBODY> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">先行合成指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">一致合成指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">钢材产量指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">财政收入指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">金融机构各项贷款指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">房地产开发投资指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">商品房销售面积指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">宏观需求指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">全国宏观先行指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">工业增加值指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none">  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">主营业务收入指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV> <P class=cas_content>  (二)宏观先行、一致指数双双持续下è¡?/P> <P class=cas_content>  宏观先行指数对宏观一致指数起到先导作用,反映企业去库存、原材料生产、房地产开发销售等经济运行的先导方面对宏观经济整体的拉动作用。构成宏观先行指数的4个先行指标在经过季节调整、取趋势项后ï¼?018年呈现如下变动(见表3):受调控影响,商品房销售面积指数经历了上半年微弱上涨后,从6月份开始下跌,月跌幅逐渐扩大,到10月份后开始负增长;供给侧结构性改革显效,去产能减压了我省钢铁过剩产能,抑制了新增钢铁产能项目,钢材产量指数呈小幅上涨趋势,近五个月产量趋稳;人民币各项贷款余额指数保持平稳;全国宏观先行指数保持平稳下行ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观先行指数</P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  <SPAN></P> <P class=cas_content align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=435 _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" v:shapes="图片_x0020_4" /></P></SPAN> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content>  宏观一致指数反映当前宏观经济的景气状况。构成宏观一致指数的5个一致指标在经过季节调整、取趋势项后ï¼?018年呈现如下变动(见表4):积极财政政策发力显效,一般公共预算收入指数大幅走低,ä»?0月起转为负增长;房地产开发投资增速经历了明显的政策性小幅回落,总体平稳;宏观需求指数除6-7月有小幅回升外,其余月份均下行;工业增加值增速整体呈现放缓趋势,但基本保持平稳,体现了当前宏观经济仍然具有内在稳定性;工业主营业务收入经历上半年的小幅回落后开始逐月回升,保持平稳运行ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观一致指æ•?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  <SPAN></P> <P class=cas_content align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=501 _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" v:shapes="图片_x0020_8" /></P></SPAN> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content>  江西宏观经济景气系统合成的先行、一致指数走势如å›?所示。先行指数最近一次的峰值出现在2017å¹?2月达99.88,随后连ç»?2个月下行,至2018å¹?2月达98.88。一致指数从2018å¹?月开始连续下è¡?2个月,至2018å¹?2月达84.15点,è·?月份的局部高点下é™?.73点。自2015年以来,本系统先行指数平均领先一致指数半年时间,目前的先行合成指数一路下探并未见反弹迹象,预示着明年一致合成指数将继续下行。基于此,预è®?019年宏观经济仍å°?/P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  有较大的下行压力ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  <SPAN></P> <P class=cas_content align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=254 _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" v:shapes="图片_x0020_3" /></P></SPAN> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  å›? 2018年江西宏观经济景气指数系统分析图</P> <P class=cas_content>  从宏观一致指数的长期走势来看(见å›?),è‡?010年初出现历史高点后,我省经济经历了一个完整的景气周期,目前处于新周期的收缩阶段。而且,本次峰值水平显著低于历次周期的峰值,一致合成指数显示出逐级下行的趋势。景气系统的运行结果反映出当前宏观经济的下行压力呈现短周期与长周期叠加的阶段性特征,这是我国经济达到较大体量之后的必经阶段,也是实施供给侧结构性改革、解决深层次矛盾的必经过程ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  <SPAN></P> <P class=cas_content align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=246 _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" v:shapes="图片_x0020_10" /></P></SPAN> <P class=cas_content>  </P> <P class=cas_content align=center>  <SPAN>      </SPAN>å›? 2004å¹?æœ?2018å¹?2月江西宏观经济景气指数系统分析图</P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  <STRONG>三、政策建è®?/STRONG></P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  (一)强化逆周期调节,积极的财政政策加力提æ•?/P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  进一步落实现有减税政策,严格税收征管和政策执行力度。稳定总需求,以税收调节资源配置,让落后产能自行关闭或转型升级,实现市场化出清。加大创新扶持力度,形成有效的创新激励机制,改善企业盈利能力。较大幅度增加地方政府专项债规模,对地方政府债务继续堵后门、开正门,从隐性、不规范融资转向规范的地方政府发债,加大基础设施建设投资力度,更好发挥有效投资潜力ã€?/P> <P class=cas_content>  (二)优化结构,深化供给侧结构性改é?/P> <P class=cas_content>  <SPAN>巩固“三去一降一补”成果,推动更多产能过剩行业加快出清,加快处置“僵尸企业”,制定退出实施办法。降低全社会各类营商成本,加大基础设施等领域补短板力度。增强微观主体活力,发挥企业和企业家主观能动性,建立公平开放透明的市场规则和法治化营商环境,促进正向激励和优胜劣汰,发展更多优质企业。提升产业链水平,注重利用技术创新和规模效应形成新的竞争优势,培育和发展新的产业集群ã€?</SPAN></P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  (三)落实金融服务政策,定向支持中小微民营企ä¸?/P> <P class=cas_content align=left>  落实好深化小微企业金融服务的各项政策措施,定向支持金融机构扩大对中小微民营企业的融资支持,有针对性地降低金融机构融资成本;进一步发展好资本市场,提高直接融资比重,从根本上改变流动性偏紧,企业融资难、融资贵的局面ã€?/P></div><div class="_______appfile 229829"></div><meta name="ContentEnd"/><!--ZJEG_RSS.content.end--><!--<$[信息内容]>end--> </div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="____article_source"> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="clr"></div> </div> </div> </section> <script src="/script/961/2104201453193024.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery.SuperSlide.2.1.3.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery.traditional.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery.qtip.min.js"></script> <script src="/script/961/2104201453194304.js"></script> <!-- visitcount Begin --><iframe src='../../../../module/visitcount/visit.jsp?type=3&i_webid=252&i_columnid=57491&i_articleid=3334379' name="vishidden" id="vishidden" frameborder="0" style="width:0; 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