ï»?!DOCTYPE html> 江西省信息中心(江西省大数据中心ï¼?经济预测 2019年江西宏观经济景气分析及2020年展æœ?/title> <meta name='Maketime' content='2021-04-25 10:24:31'> <meta name="SiteName" content="江西省信息中心(江西省大数据中心ï¼?> <meta name="SiteDomain" content="www.347755.com"> <meta name="SiteIDCode" content=""> <meta name="ColumnName" content="经济预测"> <meta name="ColumnType" content="经济预测"> <meta name="ArticleTitle" content="2019年江西宏观经济景气分析及2020年展æœ?> <meta name="pubdate" content="2019-10-30 19:31"/> <meta name="pageSize" content="1"/> <meta name="Author" content="预测éƒ?> <meta name="Description" content=""> <meta name="Keywords" content=""> <meta name="ContentSource" content="预测éƒ?> <meta name="Url" content="http://www.347755.com/art/2019/10/30/art_57491_3334381.html"> <meta name="language" content="中文"> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/images/9753/common.v2020.css" id="style1" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/images/9753/xl.v2020.css" id="style2" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/images/9753/jquery.qtip.min.css" id="style3" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" id="style4" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" id="style5" media="all" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/mobile-detect.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery-1.8.2.min.js"></script> <script type='text/javascript' src='http://www.347755.com/module/jslib/grouppic/jquery.ad-gallery.js'></script> <link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='http://www.347755.com/module/jslib/grouppic/jquery.ad-gallery2.css'> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> </head> <body id="_____xl"> <div style="position:fixed;left:-9000px;top:-9000px;"></div> <script src="/script/961/2104201453189959.js"></script> <section> <div class="W C"> <div class="path"><i class="fas fa-home"></i> <table cellspacing="0"cellpadding="0"border="0"><tr><td><a href="http://www.347755.com/index.html"class="bt_link">首页</a></td><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"> <tr> <td>><a href="http://www.347755.com/col/col57475/index.html"class="bt_link">宏观经济</a></td><td>><a href="http://www.347755.com/col/col57491/index.html"class="bt_link">经济预测</a></td> </tr></table></td></tr></table> <div class="clr"></div> </div> </div> </section> <section> <div class="W C"> <div class="xl-auto"> <script language="javascript">function doZoom(size){document.getElementById('zoom').style.fontSize=size+'px'}</script> <div class="tab-slider _____xl"> <div class="tab-hd"> <h1 class="text-center orig-title"><!--<$[标题名称(html)]>begin-->2019年江西宏观经济景气分析及2020年展æœ?!--<$[标题名称(html)]>end--></h1> <div class="cl"></div> <div class="text-center xl-line-info"> <span>日期ï¼?019-10-30</span><span>来源ï¼?!--<$[信息来源]>begin-->预测éƒ?!--<$[信息来源]>end--></span> <span class="set-font-size">字号ã€?a href='javascript:doZoom(16)'>å¤?/a><a href='javascript:doZoom(14)'>ä¸?/a><a href='javascript:doZoom(12)'>å°?/a>ã€?/span> </div> </div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="tab-bd"> <div class="tab-pal article-box" style="display: block;"> <div class="____article_content"> <!--<$[信息内容]>begin--><!--ZJEG_RSS.content.begin--><meta name="ContentStart"/><div class=TRS_Editor><DIV class=Custom_UnionStyle> <DIV style="LAYOUT-GRID: 15.6pt none"> <P> <STRONG> 内容摘要ï¼?/STRONG>江西宏观经济监测预警信号系统显示,目前我省宏观经济下行压力较大,宏观经济预警指数处于“过冷”区间;江西宏观经济景气分析系统显示宏观先行、一致指数双双持续下行,预示2019年第四季度我省宏观经济下行压力继续加大,2020年一季度前出现回升反弹的可能性较小。建议持续在投资和消费领域发力:推进落实保持基础设施领域补短板力度有关举措、加大制造业技改投资支持力度、防止房地产开发投资大起大落;稳定就业预期、进一步激发县域消费潜力、促进服务消费健康发展,加强政策针对性影响ã€?/P></DIV> <P align=left>  <STRONG>一、监测预警信号系统显示当前我省经济下行压力较å¤?/STRONG></P> <P>  宏观经济监测预警信号系统显示,宏观经济预警指数运行于“过冷”区间,当前宏观经济下行压力较大,构成宏观经济预警指数的10个预警指标走势分化ã€?/P> <P align=left>  (一)宏观经济监测预警信号系统基本情å†?/P> <P>  江西宏观经济景气预警分析系统选取10个重要的宏观经济指标,反映经济运行的总供给、总需求、财政、金融、物价等不同侧面,用红、黄、绿、浅蓝和深蓝灯的标志对重要的宏观经济指标进行监测和预警,以综合反映宏观经济运行的总体状况。红灯表示经济过热、黄灯表示趋热、绿灯表示正常、浅蓝灯表示趋冷、深蓝色灯表示过冷。预警指数的指标构成见表1ã€?/P> <P align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观经济预警指数构成</P> <DIV align=center> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="BORDER-TOP: black 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 44.1pt; BORDER-LEFT: black 1px solid; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=583 border=1> <TBODY> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">指标名称</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">指标名称</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">1</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">居民消费价格指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">6</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">工业生产者出厂价格指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">2</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">一般公共预算收入指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">7</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">固定资产投资指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">3</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">房地产开发投资指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">8</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">社会消费品零售总额指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">4</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">人民币各项贷款指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">9</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">工业增加值指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">5</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">进出口额(美元)指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">10</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">工业营业收入指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV> <P align=left>  </P> <P align=left>  (二)景气信号灯显示经济指标运行分化</P> <P>  2018å¹?æœ?2019å¹?月一年间,从构成预警指数çš?0个指标的景气信号情况来看,指标呈现“三过冷、三正常、四区间波动”。其中,“三过冷”指的是社会消费品零售总额指数、一般公共预算收入指数和固定资产投资指数始终运行在“过冷”区间。社会消费品消费增速下滑固然与经济和居民收入增速下行有关,但居民过高的债务杠杆也是制约消费的重要原因。而财政收入增速逐月回落则源于增值税改革、规范行政事业性收费和政府性基金收入等减费降税措施逐步实施,积极财政政策显效所致。固定资产投资指数始终运行于“过冷”区间是受防范和化解地方政府隐形债务、金融机构支持力度明显收缩等因素影响,基础设施投资增速大幅放缓;“三正常”指人民币各项贷款、居民消费价格和工业生产者出厂价格指数这3项指标稳定运行于“正常”区间;“四区间波动”指4项指数一年间在不同区间波动运行。进出口额指数历经“正常â€?“偏冷â€?“正常”区间,目前的“正常”运行表明江西进出口受中美贸易战影响尚不明显。而其å®?项指数都是下探转冷变动。工业营业收入指数在2018å¹?1月由“正常”转å…?“趋冷”区间;工业增加值指数历经“过冷â€?“趋冷â€?“过冷”区间,åœ?019å¹?月开始从“趋冷”转向“过冷”,继续下探;房地产开发投资指数自2019å¹?月来由“趋冷”转向“过冷”运行,持续下探主要受房地产调控政策影响所致ã€?/P> <P>  </P> <P align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=388 v:shapes="图片_x0020_5" _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" /></P> <P>  </P> <P align=center>  å›?江西月度经济指标景气信号ç?/P> <P align=left>  (三)宏观经济预警指数显示当前我省经济下行压力较å¤?/P> <P>  从近一年来看(见图1),构成宏观经济预警指数çš?0个指标中3个始终处于“过冷”区间,3个经历了明显下行过程转至“趋冷”或“过冷”,这使得预警指数总体呈现下行趋势,从2019å¹?月起预警指数保持åœ?9,由“趋冷”落入“过冷”区间,持续七个月之久ã€?/P> <P>  从较长时间来看(见图2),预警指数åœ?014å¹?月从“正常”区间落入“趋冷”区间,一路下探至2015å¹?月的“过冷”区间,此后开始反弹转为上行态势ï¼?017å¹?月短暂回升至“正常”区间后下行回调至“趋冷”区间,2018年持续下行,åœ?019å¹?月落入“过冷”区间运行,显示当前我省宏观经济总体下行压力较大ã€?/P> <P>  </P> <P align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=273 v:shapes="图片_x0020_9" _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" /></P> <P>  </P> <P align=center>  å›? 江西月度综合警情指数走势å›?/P> <P align=left>  <STRONG>二、景气指数系统预ç¤?020年我省宏观经济运行下行压力加å¤?/STRONG></P> <P>  (一)宏观经济景气指数系统基本情å†?/P> <P>  江西宏观经济景气指数系统基于经济周期理论,以工业增加值为基准指标,利用时间序列方法识别不同经济指标与基准指标的时差关系,并将指标分成先行、一致和滞后三类,进而合成景气指数,构建景气系统。我们综合使用时差相关分析、K-L信息量、基于DTW的聚类分析等新方法对景气指数系统的相关指标库进行了改进,目前指标构成情况见表2ã€?/P> <P align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观经济景气系统指标åº?/P> <DIV align=center> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="BORDER-TOP: black 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1px solid; WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: black 1px solid; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=1> <TBODY> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">先行指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">序号</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: windowtext 3.75pt double; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: thin-thick-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">一致指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">钢材产量指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">一般公共预算收入指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">人民币各项贷款指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">房地产开发投资指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">商品房销售面积指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">宏观需求指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">全国宏观先行指数</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">工业增加值指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR> <TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none">  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN></P></TD> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 3.75pt double; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: thick-thin-small-gap windowtext 3.75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%"> <P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>  <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">工业营业收入指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV> <P>  (二)宏观先行、一致指数双双持续下è¡?/P> <P>  宏观先行指数对宏观一致指数起到先导作用,反映企业去库存、原材料生产、房地产开发销售等经济运行的先导方面对宏观经济整体的拉动作用。构成宏观先行指数的4个先行指标在经过季节调整、取趋势项后,一年来呈现如下变动(见è¡?):商品房销售面积指数从2019å¹?月份开始小幅上升;供给侧结构性改革显效,去产能减压了我省钢铁过剩产能,抑制了新增钢铁产能项目,钢材产量指数呈小幅上涨趋势,近五个月产量趋稳;人民币各项贷款余额指数和全国宏观先行指数保持平稳下行ã€?/P> <P align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观先行指数</P> <P>  </P> <P align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=554 height=454 v:shapes="图片_x0020_1" _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" /></P> <P>  </P> <P>  宏观一致指数反映当前宏观经济的景气状况。构成宏观一致指数的5个一致指标在经过季节调整、取趋势项后,一年来呈现如下变动(见è¡?):积极财政政策发力显效,一般公共预算收入指数在2019å¹?月结束连ç»?个月的回升开始小幅走低;房地产开发投资增速经历了明显的政策性持续回落;宏观需求指数持续小幅下行;工业增加值指数在2019å¹?月结束连ç»?个月小幅上升后开始下行,但工业增加值增速基本保持平稳,体现了当前宏观经济仍然具有内在稳定性;工业营业收入经历7个月的小幅回落后开始逐月回升,保持平稳运行ã€?/P> <P align=center>  è¡? 江西宏观一致指æ•?/P> <P>  </P> <P align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=553 height=449 v:shapes="图片_x0020_2" _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" /></P> <P>  </P> <P>  江西宏观经济景气系统合成的先行、一致指数走势如å›?所示。一年来,先行指数和一致指数的峰值均出现åœ?018å¹?月,随后连续12个月下行。其中,先行指数ä»?9.06点回落至97.11,一致指数则ä»?2.51点回落至79.78点。自2015年以来,本系统先行指数平均领先一致指数半年时间,目前的先行合成指数一路下探并未见反弹迹象,预示着è‡?019年第四季度一致合成指数将继续下行ï¼?2020年一季度前出现反弹迹象的可能性较小,经济下行压力继续加大ã€?/P> <P align=left>  </P> <P align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=551 height=299 v:shapes="图片_x0020_12" _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" /></P> <P>  </P> <P align=center>  å›?江西宏观经济景气指数系统分析å›?/P> <P>  从宏观一致指数的长期走势来看(见å›?),è‡?010年初出现历史高点后,我省经济经历了一个完整的景气周期,目前处于新周期的收缩阶段。而且,本次峰值水平不高于历次周期的峰值,宏观一致指数显示出逐级下行的趋势。景气系统的运行结果反映出当前宏观经济的下行压力呈现短周期与长周期叠加的阶段性特征,这是经济达到较大体量之后的必经阶段,也是实施供给侧结构性改革、解决深层次矛盾的必经过程ã€?/P> <P>  </P> <P align=left>  </P> <P align=center><IMG src="/images/404.jpg" width=553 height=301 v:shapes="图片_x0020_15" _fcksavedurl="/images/404.jpg" /></P> <P>  </P> <P align=center>  å›?江西宏观经济景气指数系统分析å›?/P> <P align=left> <STRONG> 三、政策建è®?/STRONG></P> <P>  针对构成宏观经济预警指数中近一年运行于“深蓝灯â€?过冷区间的“固定资产投资指数”、“房地产开发投资指数”和“社会消费品零售总额指数”这三项指标,从“投资”和“消费”两大领域提出相关政策建议ã€?/P> <P>  <SPAN Roman?? New ?Times>遵循“聚焦关键领域促进有效投资”的调控思路,坚持有所为有所不为,一方面,推进落实保持基础设施领域补短板力度有关举措,加大制造业技改投资支持力度,防止房地产开发投资大起大落。另一方面,严厉遏制地方政府隐性债务扩张,稳定宏观杠杆率,坚决不搞新一轮的大水漫灌ã€?/SPAN></P> <P>  1.加大补短板投资力度。针对关键核心技术装备、传统产业改造、新兴产业培育、公共服务“补强提”、基础设施智能化网络化等短板领域,出台一系列有力度的支持政策,切实引导和支持土地、金融、创新、人才等要素向补短板投资项目集聚,通过补短板投资优化供给结构、支撑投资平稳增长。同时,推动研究“适当增加地方政府新增专项债券规模”“结构性降低基础设施等项目资本金比例”“吸引更多民间资本参与重点领域项目建设”等精准支持政策ã€?/P> <P>  2.健全房地产市场长效机制。一是加强对各类融资手段的用途管控,避免资金绕道违规流入房地产市场。二是加快土地供应节奏,稳定土地价格,更多使用“竞自持、竞配建”出让方式。三是稳步推进房地产长效机制,把握好行政性措施、临时措施退出的节奏,管理好房价波动预期。四是进一步健全完善住房保障体系,加快推进租赁住房建设,切实增加公租房有效供应。进一步支持大中房企全面培育和发展住房租赁市场ã€?/P> <P>  3.优化民间投资环境。一是尽快出台《营商环境条例》,在法律法规层面上进一步优化投资环境。二是提高环保、社保等政策稳定性,细化政策单元,避免政策执行频繁调整变动,导致企业无所适从,放大投资环境的不确定性。三是加大援企助企力度。落实大规模减税降费政策,推动缓解企业融资难融资贵问题,助力企业提升应对困难局面的能力。四是加快处置“僵尸企业”,推进低效产能退出、兼并重组,净化市场竞争环境,加速市场出清步伐ã€?/P> <P>  <SPAN Roman?? New ?Times>从稳定就业预期、进一步激发县域消费潜力、促进服务消费健康发展等方面入手,有针对性地加强政策影响ã€?/SPAN></P> <P>  1.加大企业减负政策力度,稳定就业预æœ?/P> <P>  进一步落实加大为企业减负,必要时实施更大规模的减税降费,稳住企业发展,为稳就业夯实坚实基础。应着力加强对重点地区、重点行业、重点人群就业失业的形势监测分析,及时完善政策储备。另外,还要重新审视劳动力市场上现存政策,减少制度掣肘,降低劳动者在换工作、找工作时的交易成本ã€?/P> <P>  2.加快推进农村土地改革,进一步激发县域消费潜åŠ?/P> <P>  积极加快产业升级,减少限制和垄断,促进可以满足消费升级需要的高品质商品和服务供给;在收入层面,除落实好减税降费以外,加速推进农村“三块地”改革,增加农民财产性收入、藏富于民,以增收促消费。同时,加快推进县、镇、乡、村各级消费基础设施如电商物流网络的建设,扫清县域居民消费的物理障碍,对进一步激发消费潜力至关重要ã€?/P> <P> </P></DIV></div><div class="_______appfile 229831"></div><meta name="ContentEnd"/><!--ZJEG_RSS.content.end--><!--<$[信息内容]>end--> </div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="____article_source"> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="clr"></div> <div class="clr"></div> </div> </div> </section> <script src="/script/961/2104201453193024.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery.SuperSlide.2.1.3.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery.traditional.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/images/9753/jquery.qtip.min.js"></script> <script src="/script/961/2104201453194304.js"></script> <!-- visitcount Begin --><iframe src='../../../../module/visitcount/visit.jsp?type=3&i_webid=252&i_columnid=57491&i_articleid=3334381' name="vishidden" id="vishidden" frameborder="0" style="width:0; height:0; display:none"></iframe><!-- visitcount End --> <a style='display:none'>Produced By 大汉网络 大汉版通发布系ç»?/a> <a href="http://www.347755.com/">ÐÓÒ«</a> <script> (function(){ var bp = document.createElement('script'); var curProtocol = window.location.protocol.split(':')[0]; if (curProtocol === 'https') { bp.src = 'https://zz.bdstatic.com/linksubmit/push.js'; } else { bp.src = 'http://push.zhanzhang.baidu.com/push.js'; } var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(bp, s); })(); </script> </body> </html>